After the beginning of 2021, the national building ceramics industry experienced a short 3-4 month sales boom, but it quickly turned sluggish around June. Most ceramic manufacturers' inventories increased sharply, and sales pressure increased sharply. At the same time, due to factors such as the doubling of fuel and raw material prices, many ceramic companies had to reduce production and suspend kilns.
From late July to the present, affected by multiple factors such as poor sales, skyrocketing production costs, "dual control" of energy consumption, off-peak electricity consumption, autumn and winter control, and suspension of production due to heavy pollution weather, Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Fujian, Ceramic production lines in about 20 provinces including Hunan, Liaoning, Hebei, and Shandong have stopped production on a large scale, and many (county-level) ceramic production areas have even stopped production altogether.
According to incomplete statistics from "Ceramic Information", as of now, at least more than 1,000 ceramic production lines across the country have been suspended. Some ceramic companies in Gansu, Jiangxi, Guangdong and other provinces have even started taking annual holidays in mid-to-early October.
Amidst the wave of production suspensions and production reductions, ceramic tile production across the country has experienced a temporary and sharp decrease, and many production areas have set off a craze for dealers to stock up and purchase goods. At the same time, the theory of "out of stock" of ceramic tiles is rampant - many industry insiders believe that "next, some ceramic tile specifications and colors will face shortages."
But the ceramic industry has always been suffering from severe overcapacity, and many ceramic people jokingly said: "Even if all ceramic production lines in the country are suspended for a year, there will be no shortage of bricks in the market." There is serious overcapacity in ceramic tiles across the country, and the market In the context of oversupply, nearly half of the country's ceramic tile production lines have been suspended for a month. Will it trigger a shortage of goods in the market?
Over a thousand production lines nationwide have been suspended
The kiln shutdown rate is the highest in the same period in the past ten years
Since the second half of this year, the kiln opening rate in the ceramic industry has been at a low level. According to incomplete statistics from "Ceramic Information", as early as August, more than 200 production lines in major ceramic production areas across the country suddenly stopped production due to multiple factors such as excessive cost growth, weak market, summer power cuts and environmental protection.
Among the categories that have been discontinued, tile products top the list, and more production lines for porcelain tiles, exterior wall tiles, and glazed tiles have also been discontinued.
After August, the shortage of electricity supply across the country has become increasingly prominent, which has directly led to large-scale production shutdowns in major production areas across the country. Power restriction measures such as “halving production” and “opening for 20 days and stopping for 20 days” have been implemented in major production areas.One after another.
In addition, the prices of coal, natural gas and raw materials have reached record highs, further increasing the scope of production shutdowns in the ceramic industry. Chemical raw materials such as caustic soda and sodium trimerate have almost doubled in the past month. The price of natural gas in Guangdong and Fujian once approached 5 yuan/m³, and the price of coal exceeded the 2,200 yuan/ton mark...
According to incomplete statistics from "Ceramic Information", since September, more than 1,000 of the country's 2,700 construction ceramics (including ceramic roof tiles) production lines have been almost completely suspended for one month or more.
Guangxi, as the first ceramic production area to initiate large-scale power rationing measures, has gradually opened up production as energy supply has recovered recently. However, in the past two months, more than 110 ceramic tile production lines in the region were at a standstill. Many production lines started and stopped during the period, and production was intermittent.
Fujian production areas have been required to use electricity in an orderly manner since September. Although policies vary from place to place, they have generally reduced electricity consumption by 20%-40%. In addition, previous production costs have been too high and sales have been poor. Suspension of production lines. Conservative statistics show that there are more than 200 kiln shutdown production lines in Fujian Province, and the kiln opening rate is roughly around 50%. According to local insiders, the situation of Fujian Ceramics production suspension and production reduction is still intensifying.
In the Shandong production area, power restrictions will be implemented starting from September, and electricity prices will be raised at the same time. Due to cost and inventory reduction considerations, ceramic companies have forced nearly 30 production lines in Zibo and Linyi to cease production.
In addition, on October 10, Zibo's power cuts were upgraded again, and nearly 80 ceramic tile production lines were required to stop in rotation. In October and November, they were "open for 20 days and stopped for 20 days," and the shutdown situation was once again intensified.
Jiangxi Gaoan suspended more than 40 production lines in September due to sales situation, accounting for 25% of the total production lines. By early October, more than 20 production lines still had not resumed production. In October, Gao'an's coal-to-factory prices and "centralized gas supply" gas prices increased significantly. Some local industry insiders said that rising costs will further lead to a large number of production lines shutting down kilns in advance.
Liaoning Faku implemented secondary measures for orderly electricity use on September 27, and more than 50 production lines of 30 ceramic companies were required to suspend production for one month. Due to environmental governance in Gaoyi, Hebei Province, more than 50 production lines of more than 30 ceramic companies were suspended from September 20 to September 30. Now only a few production lines have resumed production.
There are more than 100 production lines in Henan province, and the current kiln operation rate is about 50%. On the one hand, Neihuang, the largest production area in the province, launched "centralized gas supply" on September 26, and 12 ceramic companies transformed 28 production lines into pipelines. On the other hand, costs are too high and product price increases are lower than expected, which have also become the main factors for ceramic companies to suspend production.
13 ceramics stores in Yimen, YunnanAll 24 production lines of the company were suspended on September 15. The suspension lasted for one month, and production has only been resumed in the past two days.
Gas prices in Guangdong production areas have soared this year, which has forced many ceramic companies to shut down. The "three on, three off, four off" power rationing measures have caused intermittent production on a large number of production lines. Yunfu was notified of energy consumption problems, which caused many The ceramic production line was discontinued.
According to incomplete statistics from "Ceramic Information", more than 200 production lines have been suspended in Guangdong, but many suppliers revealed that the actual number is more than that.
Coupled with the discontinued ceramic tile and ceramic tile production lines in other production areas such as Sichuan, Hunan, Anhui, and Northwest China, the conservative statistics of the nationwide discontinued production lines are around 1,000. If some idle production lines that have been suspended for many years are also included, the actual discontinued production lines will be More.
Ceramic tile production reduced by 500 million square meters in one month
Is the ceramic industry facing a shortage of goods?
According to the statistical data of "Ceramics Information" "2020 Ceramics Industry Long March - National Tile Production Capacity Survey", the total daily production capacity of ceramic tiles in the country in 2020 reached 39.74315 million square meters. The above-mentioned more than 1,000 production lines accounted for approximately 10% of the total production capacity of ceramic tile production lines in the country. 40%.
If the above-mentioned production lines are shut down for an average of one month, the output will be reduced by nearly 500 million square meters (close to the half-year output of India, the world's second largest ceramic tile manufacturer). In addition, a large number of ceramic production lines in the above-mentioned production areas such as Guangxi and Fujian have been shut down for more than one month. In addition, many production lines in production have also compressed output to varying degrees, making it even more difficult for actual output to reach normal levels.
Many people in the industry believe that before this large-scale power restriction and production limit, ceramic tile sales were in a sluggish situation that was rare in recent years due to the impact of various factors in the upstream, midstream and downstream. According to "Ceramic Information", the sales situation of ceramic tiles has continued to decline after June, and the production and sales ratio in many production areas is less than 50%. Among them, products such as exterior wall tiles, porcelain tiles, and large/rock slabs have been severely out of stock.
Affected by the large-scale production shutdown across the country in the past two months, can the ceramic industry achieve the effect of "destocking"?
Many industry professionals in Sichuan, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Shandong and other production areas told "Ceramic Information" that the sales situation has not changed significantly in the past two months. The traditional "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" are not what they used to be, but recent sales Shipments increased slightly and warehouse inventories decreased.
“In fact, it is not that the market has improved, nor has there been an obvious shortage.The reason for the phenomenon of out-of-stock prices is that raw materials have risen so sharply recently, and everyone is raising prices. Customers also know that this time there is really going to be a sharp increase, so they prepare stocks in advance. ” revealed an industry insider in Shandong.
In the Enping production area of Guangdong, a large number of ceramic companies suspended production and reduced production due to natural gas prices exceeding 4.5 yuan/m³. However, the sales situation has improved slightly recently, and the production lines that had reduced output have begun to operate at full capacity.
It is reported that natural gas prices have been raised again in many places in Guangdong recently, reaching a maximum of 4.8 yuan/m³. Due to concerns about rising energy prices, subsequent production costs will continue to rise. Many ceramic companies are worried that kilns will be shut down early this winter and inventory will be in short supply, so they are operating at full capacity to prepare for inventory.
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For a long time, the ceramic industry has suffered from serious overcapacity. Many ceramic people jokingly said: "Even if all ceramic production lines in the country are suspended for a year, there will be no shortage of bricks in the market."
Since August this year, large areas of ceramic tile (tile) production lines across the country have been suspended. Now and in the next few months, will major ceramic production areas be out of stock? Welcome to leave a message at the end of the article for discussion!
(Article reproduced from Ceramic Information)
